We have been contemplating what to do, where to go in 2019, and though we enjoyed Madagascar…ecspecially the lemurs…we are wondering if it’s worth it to strategize to get back there from Tanzania, to then have to strategize and struggle to get back to the east coast of Africa…where we are now, in order to go south again.
So we will stay in Tanzania for about 3 more months, til the end of March, working our way south to the border by the end of March, at the latest. We will then depart for South Africa via Mozambique. But we won’t be departing Tanzania until we can do one more grand, excellent Safari here, for nearly a week, and then a big music festival!
Here is what I have learned about our trip south from Tanzania, along the coast of Mozambique, to South Africa.
First, I have been analyzing this…Long Technical Article .
This chart, part of this above article is particularly helpful: It is the 34.5 percent that I am most concerned about as those cyclones don’t have that much notice…The 28.8 percents…the most northern ones, will be earlier in the trip and we won’t leave safe harbor if we see one of those coming. The bottom two will be out of the way by the time we get that far south, and they have a much longer warning period.
I have looked closely at the cyclone patterns since 1972 on the climatology plugin on Open CPN. Again…May is in the clear…
During the passage, my Iridium GO and Predictwind Offshore will be activated again so that I can get updates every 12 hours to see the details of what may be stewing…This will be very important not just for early cyclone warning, ecspecially the ECMWF model, but also for the all important currents.
I have consulted with a local weather guru, Des Cason down in South Africa, and have talked to and will continue to talk to local sailors who have gone up and down this coast more than once or twice. There is some conflicting information here so I need to keep talking to them! It may be my understanding of what they are saying…or it may be a difference between months traveling. It could also be the effects of cocktails while the sun sets.
I have closely examined Jimmy Cornels Ocean Cruising Pilot Charts, and April looks very mildly risky while May looks to be totally in the clear.
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Some things are very clear to me after all of this research, and while they are still clear to me I thought I would document them for future sailors considering this route, straight down the Mozambique coast in the April, May or early June timeframe. I also invite anyone who has recently made this trip to comment below on your experiences, and with any advice. One can never hear too much about the next leg of one’s passage.
- One MUST get down to Mtwara on the Tanzania/Mozambique border by mid March or risk going against wind and potentially current too to get around Capo Delgado just over the border in Mozambique. Des Cason and local sailors give conflicting reports in regards to where the current splits as it hits the Mozambique coasts. Pilot charts agree with the local sailors…Predictwind as we get closer to that time will give us a very good idea as to where it splits and if we will have a helping or hurting current as we found this Cape.
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March is still a very strong chance of a cyclone, and though they don’t hit this coast often, it’s still a chance. So we won’t go much past the border until April. In April there is still a very minor chance of a cyclone, and it will NOT have much notice to us since the ones that hit in northern mozambique either develop just northeast of Madagascar, or develop near Mayotte…so we have to be prepared to sail fast one direction or the other to escape it. We need to stay as north as possible until mid to late April to be totally in the clear.
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May is ideal. The Southeast winds have arrived, but they aren’t strong.the current down the Mozambique Channel is a helping Southerly flowing current. The Southwesterly busters…periods of very strong south and Southwest winds only happen a few times a month, unlike the traditional October/November Crossing from Madagascar, so you have much longer weather windows (which a slower boat like ours needs).
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Late June until mid September is a bad idea since you can get Winter Storms, and who wants to sail when it’s cold anyways, never mind in a storm?
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From the chart above, if we can get one third of the way down the coast, we have escaped the short notice cyclones late season cyclones, and then only have to watch carefully for the cyclones developing in the central Indian Ocean which end earlier.
We will get to the Tanzania/Mozambique border by middle of March and then hold up there for as long as possible. And then fly down the coast as fast as we can in late April/ early May. We have heard mixed reports about clearance in to Mozambique so we aren’t sure yet if we will spend time there. I guess it will depend on weather.
South Africa…here we come!
